The crypto market is still digesting last week’s brutal drop. In our previous SOL analysis, we highlighted the importance of the $100 level and warned that if it broke, $80 could come into play. That scenario unfolded quickly. Solana didn’t just tap $80 — it flushed all the way down to $64 before bouncing toward $80.
Solana wasn’t alone. Silver printed a clean V-shaped recovery. Bitcoin bounced from the lows. Even some high-beta plays showed strength after the panic. Today, I’m sharing my Solana trade, along with the bull and bear scenarios I’m watching closely.
SOL Drops With the Broader Crypto Market
Solana fell below $70 for the first time in over a year, reaching a deep low around $67 during the selloff. That marked one of the largest monthly drawdowns among top-cap cryptocurrencies, with SOL losing roughly 38% during the decline.
Bitcoin dropped more than 10% on the week and over 25% on the month. Ethereum followed with heavy losses as well. XRP and other large caps also saw sharp corrections. Overall crypto market capitalization contracted significantly, reflecting broad risk-off sentiment rather than a Solana-specific collapse.
The move wasn’t subtle. Long liquidations accelerated aggressively, wiping out leveraged traders and adding fuel to the downside. ETF outflows increased, open interest dropped sharply, and leverage left the system. That combination usually signals forced selling rather than calm distribution.
Derivatives Data Shows Capitulation
Open interest declined dramatically from recent highs, signaling that traders reduced exposure and risk appetite fell sharply. When open interest drops alongside price, it often suggests liquidation-driven moves rather than fresh short positioning.
The long/short ratio hovering near parity shows cautious positioning. Nobody is aggressively betting either direction right now. That’s typical after panic. Market participants are defensive, waiting for clarity.
When you see heavy liquidations, collapsing open interest, and extreme fear readings at the same time, you’re usually closer to a local bottom than a fresh collapse. Not guaranteed, but statistically meaningful.
How Low Can SOL Go?
Technically, the chart damage is real. Solana lost the $100 psychological level and slipped below key long-term moving averages. It also confirmed a head-and-shoulders breakdown earlier, which projects a deeper downside target if the structure fully plays out.
Measured targets from that breakdown point toward the mid-50s. Some analysts even floated the possibility of $40, which would represent a typical altcoin drawdown from all-time highs. We’ve seen 80–90% retracements before in this space. Nothing is impossible in crypto.
Momentum oscillators also hit deeply oversold territory. Weekly RSI readings reached levels rarely seen in SOL’s history. Historically, those types of readings have aligned with major cycle lows, but they don’t prevent temporary downside spikes.
So yes, technically, lower is possible. But markets rarely move in straight lines.
Crypto Extreme Fear: The Context Matters
The crypto fear and greed index dropped below 10 and even tapped 5. That is more extreme than many recent panic events. Historically, buying during periods of extreme fear has produced strong asymmetric opportunities.
That doesn’t mean blindly buying everything. It means scanning for setups. I’m actively watching Bitcoin, Silver, HYPE, XRP, and Solana. Not every chart is ready, but I’m hunting.
Solana stands out because the bounce from $64 looks impulsive. The structure resembles a clear five-wave move up from the lows. If that interpretation holds, the current pullback may simply be an ABC correction before continuation higher.
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Sometimes it’s better to take the trade rather than waiting for the “perfect” entry and missing the move entirely. If this structure is correct, we are in the middle of a corrective pullback within a new short-term bullish impulse.
My entry: 83.05
Stop loss: 68.2
Target: 145
The stop sits below structural support and below the recent panic zone. If price breaks that area again, the bullish structure likely failed. The risk is clearly defined.
The upside target around 145 aligns with previous supply and would complete a potential ABC-to-impulse continuation scenario. If correct, the risk-to-reward profile is attractive.
Bull Scenario
In the bullish case, $64 marked a capitulation low. The bounce is the first impulse. The current consolidation becomes a higher low. If buyers step in with volume, SOL can rotate back toward 100 and eventually challenge the 120–145 region.
Extreme fear, washed-out leverage, and oversold weekly momentum support this thesis. If broader crypto stabilizes, Solana could outperform due to its strong ecosystem activity and high beta profile.
Bear Scenario
The bearish case remains valid. The breakdown below $100 was significant. If SOL loses the 68–70 region again, downside targets toward the mid-50s reopen. A failure to reclaim higher resistance zones would suggest the trend remains down.
If Bitcoin rolls over again or macro pressure intensifies, altcoins will not be spared. In that scenario, protecting capital becomes priority number one.
That is exactly why the stop loss exists.
If you’re still trading Binance, read this important update and list of alternatives.
Why I’m Taking This Trade
This is not a blind long. It’s a defined-risk attempt during extreme fear conditions after a violent flush. The structure suggests opportunity. The sentiment suggests panic exhaustion. The derivatives data suggests leverage reset.
Not all charts require immediate action. But Solana currently looks like the strongest impulse from the lows among the majors.
If I’m wrong, my risk is managed.
If I’m right, the upside is meaningful.
That’s how trading should work.
Final Words
My Solana trade is a tactical play, not a marriage proposal. The market remains volatile and emotional. Risk management matters more than conviction.
Extreme fear often creates opportunity, but only if you approach it with discipline. Whether this becomes the start of a larger recovery or just a bounce in a broader downtrend will be revealed soon.
Until then, trade with a plan, define your risk, and let the market do the talking.
If you enjoyed this blog, be sure to check out our guide on position sizing while trading.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
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