Last weekend was fully packed.
Family birthdays, overseas visitors, a baptism, and zero screen time.
So yes, there was a bit less crypto content than usual.
That was intentional.
But I’m back in full force today.
Multiple charts open.
Multiple timeframes checked.
Let’s start where everything still begins: Bitcoin.
Bitcoin recent pullback puts momentum on pause
Bitcoin started 2026 in a calmer way than many expected.
Instead of extending the sharp sell-off from late 2025, price slowed down and stabilized.
After briefly dipping into the high $80,000s, buyers stepped in.
Not aggressively, but consistently.
That shift mattered.
It showed that forced selling and panic were largely flushed out.
The market moved from survival mode to positioning mode.
As January progressed, momentum improved.
Bitcoin reclaimed the $94,000 area and pushed through levels that had capped price since November.
That move changed sentiment.
Not euphoric, but constructive.
Still, price remains well below the October 2025 highs.
This is not a runaway bull move.
It’s a market trying to rebuild structure.
Regulation and institutions quietly support the bid
One of the main background drivers this year has been regulation talk.
Not hype.
Actual framework discussions.
Proposed U.S. crypto legislation has reduced uncertainty.
Especially for larger players.
Institutions tend to move first into Bitcoin.
That pattern hasn’t changed.
Spot ETF flows reflect this.
In early 2026, inflows have been steadier.
Outflows are smaller and more controlled.
This looks less like speculation.
More like selective accumulation.
Macro pressure keeps rallies capped
Bitcoin still reacts to macro data.
Inflation numbers.
Rates.
Risk sentiment.
The idea of easier monetary policy helps, but traders want confirmation.
Until then, rallies stall near resistance.
That explains recent hesitation.
Upside attempts meet sellers.
Downside moves stay controlled.
This balance defines the current phase.
Where the technicals stand right now
Key resistance zones
Bitcoin failed just below the major $98,000–$100,700 resistance area.
That rejection triggered the current pullback.
Price is also trading below the $94,100–$94,700 zone.
As long as this caps price, downside pressure remains.
A clean reclaim of this range would open the door for another attempt higher.
Support levels to watch
The mid-December to January trend line sits around $90,700.
That level is being tested.
Below that, the $90,500–$89,200 zone becomes important.
This area previously attracted buyers.
If that fails, the next major support sits near $83,800.
Only below there does the $80,600 low come into play.
Short-term vs medium-term outlook
Short-term outlook
Bearish while below $94,700, with pressure toward $90,000 support.
Medium-term outlook
Neutral with a bearish bias while price stays below $100,700, but above $80,600.
This is still a range environment.
Not a confirmed breakdown.
Japan bond stress adds fuel to volatility
While headlines focus on politics and trade tensions, Japan has been the real signal.
Long-dated Japanese bond yields spiked sharply.
The 30-year yield surged to levels not seen in decades.
That matters.
Japan has been a global liquidity source for years.
As yields rise, capital flows home.
Liquidity drains elsewhere.
Risk assets reacted fast.
Equities dropped.
Crypto followed.
Bitcoin fell below $91,000 during this move.
Not because of crypto-specific news.
Because liquidity tightened.
At the same time, precious metals surged.
Gold and silver made new highs. (and our silver sell order hit at $96, with our trade from $72 last week).
This divergence fits a liquidity stress narrative.
Bitcoin structure still looks corrective, not broken
On the daily chart, Bitcoin rolled over from $98,000.
That level aligned with a rising channel top and moving average resistance.
RSI cooled off.
Momentum reset.
The key zone now sits around $90,000.
As long as price holds above $88,000, the broader structure remains intact.
Below $88,000, things change fast.
Above it, this still looks like a higher-low attempt.
Intraday view shows stretched selling
On the 4-hour chart, price is testing the lower channel boundary.
RSI is oversold.
That often leads to a bounce.
Not always a trend reversal, but at least a reaction.
If $89,000–$90,000 holds, a move back toward $93,000–$95,000 is possible.
Failure there would confirm sellers remain in control.
On-chain data supports a late correction phase
Short-term holders have been selling at a loss for weeks.
The short-term SOPR has stayed below 1.
That tells a story.
Weak hands are exiting.
Stronger hands are absorbing supply.
Historically, this kind of behavior often shows up near the end of corrective phases.
Not guarantees.
But probabilities shift.
Support Our Work
If you found this helpful, consider signing up on BloFin (Non-KYC) or Bybit using our referral links. Both these exchanges trade ZEC, DASH and XMR on perps. Your support keeps this content free and flowing.
The trade I’m watching
Today’s focus is simple.
If Bitcoin closes the daily candle above $90.4k, bullish divergence appears on the daily.
That’s a setup I respect.
The higher timeframe does not scream major downside to me.
On top of that, I’ve received messages this morning asking if Bitcoin is heading to the low $60k range.
That type of question usually shows up near local bottoms.
For now, I’m patient.
Looking for a long spot entry.
No rush.
Let the trade come to you.
Final words
Bitcoin is not collapsing.
It’s digesting.
Liquidity is tighter.
Macro is noisy.
But structure still holds.
This is a market testing conviction.
Not one in panic.
And those phases often matter more than the loud ones.
If you enjoyed this blog, check out our thoughts on the DOGE price action.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
Credit: Source link
