Bitcoin Never Crossed $100K When Adjusted For Inflation: Galaxy

Crypto market leader Bitcoin (BTC) did not actually break above the $100K mark this year when inflation is factored in, according to Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn.

In a Dec. 23 X post, Thorn said that the crypto never broke above the six-figure barrier when BTC’s price is adjusted for inflation using 2020 dollars. 

“It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it,” he said. 

The researcher added that the adjusted price accounted for the decline in purchasing power since 2020. More specifically, he mentioned the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has dropped incrementally across every inflation print from 2020 until now. 

The CPI is used to measure inflation via the prices of a basket of goods and services. It is calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to track any changes in consumer spending habits. 

In November, the agency reported that the CPI has risen 2.7% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted, which has decreased the purchasing power of the US dollar. Overall, the greenback has lost 20% of its value since 2020. 

Current situation:

1. US GDP growth is at its strongest pace since 2023

2. CPI inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.7% last month

3. Trump is appointing a new Fed Chair who will cut rates

4. Oil prices are down to their lowest level since 2021

5. Equity ETFs have attracted a…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 23, 2025

Bitcoin May Not Suffer A Major Crash In Q1 2026

Thorn’s post comes after BTC soared to a record high of $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2023. It has since dropped more than 31% to trade at $87,101.47 as of 1:30 a.m. EST, data from CoinMarketCap shows.

BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Zooming out to the yearly chart shows that the crypto king’s price has plunged more than 7% in the last 12 months as well.

Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano commented on BTC’s drop during a Tuesday interview with CNBC. 

The entrepreneur addressed the short-term disappointment from Bitcoin holders over the crypto not reaching $250K this year, despite such predictions being made by several experts in 2025. 

“We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well,” he said.

“We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” Pompliano added. 

Pompliano also noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped substantially compared to previous years. As such, he said that “it would be very surprising” if there is a “70% or 80% drawdown” during the first quarter of 2026. 

VanEck Believes Bitcoin Will Be A “Top Performer” In 2026

While BTC may not have rallied in 2025 as the market had expected, and trailed both gold and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 stock index, asset manager VanEck believes that the crypto may be setting itself up for a strong comeback next year. 

“Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, and that dislocation is setting it up to be a top performer in 2026,” the asset manager’s head of multi-asset solutions David Schassler said in VanEck’s 2026 outlook. 

That bullish forecast is based on the belief that growing fiat currency devaluation could lead to liquidity returning to the crypto market, which has seen BTC respond “sharply” historically. 

The analyst added that VanEck has “been buying” Bitcoin while its price is low. 

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