A catastrophic collapse is happening for Bitcoin. In the space of just a few weeks the $BTC price has plunged from the $126,000 all-time high down to $81,000. $74,000 is the next major support level – is Bitcoin heading there?
A tale of woe
99% of short-term holders are underwater on their Bitcoin purchases, and according to CheckonChain, the short-term holder supply in profit/loss ratio is the lowest it has ever been.
Also, of the top 3 Bitcoin treasury companies, Bitmine and Forward Industries are at a loss of 31% and 44% respectively, while Strategy’s average cost of their 649,870 BTC pile is $74,433 – still in a profit, but is this about to go underwater as well?
Coinglass reported $1.93 billion in liquidations for the last 24 hours as traders and investors probably thought that this dump just couldn’t keep going.
It’s not just Bitcoin and crypto. The S&P 500 fell 3.4% from high to low on Thursday – a fall not equalled since the huge Trump tariffs dump earlier this year.
Bitcoin now down 35%
Source: TradingView
At this particular point, Bitcoin is down 35% from the all-time high. It now remains to be seen how much further this collapse can go. Once this modicum of support at around $82,000 breaks, it should be straight down to the $74,000 level, which might be remembered as the top of the huge 8-month bull flag pattern that stretched from March to November of 2024.
From there, it isn’t that much further to the $69,000 top of the previous bull market. Retesting the tops of previous bull markets is normally what happens in the depths of the bear market, not the bull. Therefore, it’s to be wondered if perhaps we might have entered a short bear market rather than being in a bull market correction?
The last nail in the coffin?
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart view now paints a picture of a bull market in ruins, unless of course there is an unexpected turnaround. If the $BTC price has a weekly close below the major ascending trendline, that would be the last nail in the coffin.
As things stand, it looks far more likely that the price is going to descend all the way down to $74,000. Then $69,000 would only be a short descent from there. At least that would then provide massive horizontal support, and we could start beginning to think of the next upside move.
Will it get down there? While it probably may, it needs to be borne in mind that the Stochastic RSI indicators are at the bottom, as they nearly are in the 2-week time frame. Also, look at the RSI indicator. It is fast approaching a level that has only been hit at the bottoms of the previous two bull markets.
These are strange financial times. The opaque plumbing of the fiat currency/banking system is not operating as it should. This is affecting all assets. Who knows what is coming next?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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