Bitcoin price retreated to around $108,300 today after briefly touching $114,000 on Tuesday, while traditional safe-haven assets continued to slide.
Spot gold fell to as low as $4,034 per ounce, extending its sharp losses from earlier in the week, and silver remained down nearly 8%.
The moves follow remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who announced plans for a “skinny master account” program that would allow eligible fintech and crypto firms limited access to the Fed’s payment system — a step seen as integrating digital assets more directly into traditional finance.
Those Fed comments were made at the Federal Reserve’s first-ever Payments Innovation Conference in Washington. Bitcoin initially jumped more than 5% to $114,000 during the event but has since retreated to around $108,000.
Market chatter on social media suggested that investors may be rotating out of precious metals and into bitcoin, echoing themes from Bitwise Asset Management’s latest Crypto Market Compass report.
Bitwise said a modest 3–4% shift of capital from gold into crypto could theoretically double Bitcoin’s price, given the relative size difference between the two markets.
Just today, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick wrote that he expects Bitcoin to briefly drop below $100,000 due to trade war concerns but said the decline may be short-lived, noting that recent gold weakness has historically sparked quick Bitcoin rebounds.
Bitcoin price prediction markets are flashing a signal
Bitcoin prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are emerging as real-time sentiment indicators for traders betting on future bitcoin prices. These platforms aggregate odds based on where participants think bitcoin will end the year.
Earlier in October, traders were predicting a $144,000 year-end price, but that has since dropped to around $129,000 as volatility and fear increased.
When the spot price trades well below forecasts, it typically signals fear and potential undervaluation; when it trades near or above forecasts, it suggests market euphoria and possible local tops. Adjusted for prediction volatility, the data shows that wide gaps between the two often coincide with market lows.
So right now, it’s safe to say that prediction markets are flashing a contrarian “fear” signal.
While Polymarket claims 91% accuracy, removing outlier bets brings that figure closer to 71%. Interestingly, this ratio tends to move opposite the Fear and Greed Index — highlighting undervaluation during fear and overconfidence during greed.
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