October was a turbulent month for crypto, with prices swinging on a mix of macro data, Fed signals, and global events. Bitcoin and altcoins came under heavy pressure, and the market also saw a staggering $19 billion in liquidations that rattled traders.
However, traders are now eyeing November closely, which is historically one of Bitcoin’s stronger months, and wondering if the stars might finally align for a rally.
The upcoming Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Meeting, the delayed inflation report, and ongoing expectations of two Fed rate cuts have created significant volatility in the market. However, this could also open the door for recovery.
The next move in crypto could come down to three big catalysts:
CPI Data (Oct 24)
The U.S. Consumer Price Index was delayed and is now expected October 24. If the reading comes in softer than expected, it could boost hopes for rate cuts and give risk assets, including crypto, a lift. But if inflation surprises on the upside, it could reignite hawkish fears and delay a crypto rebound.
The Fed bases its monetary policy on inflation and jobs. The labor market is already weak, pointing to potential rate cuts. With the FOMC meeting next week, the Fed will be watching this data closely.
Fed Rate Cuts
Markets are still expecting two cuts before the year ends. If inflation eases and the jobs market stays weak, the Fed could move faster on easing, which has historically been favorable for crypto. When liquidity starts to rise, rallies often follow within 4–8 weeks. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 98.9% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut.
November could be the first real opportunity where all these factors line up and could bring fresh liquidity and give crypto a boost.
Trump–Xi Meeting
Markets are closely watching for the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Recent trade tensions, rare-earth export issues, and tariffs have caused uncertainty.
Ahead of his meeting, Trump has said that the two countries could strike a “fantastic deal”, but has also warned that failure to reach an agreement could lead to tariffs as high as 155%.
Any hint of a friendlier trade tone could spark optimism across global markets, and crypto often follows the mood of broader risk assets. Crypto, especially altcoins, tends to suffer the most during risk-off periods, so any constructive news could help the broader market bounce back.
Beyond these macro catalysts, other market signals are also worth noting.
Other Market Signals
The Bitcoin ETF inflows and new approvals keep institutional interest alive, often driving momentum. Broader liquidity trends like M2 growth, central bank balance sheets remain supportive, but any slowdown could limit upside.
These signs show that markets could be coiling, potentially setting the stage for another significant move in crypto.
However, traders should focus on confirmation rather than emotion and wait for clear signals before making moves to navigate the volatility.
A New Bull Phase?
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows clear sideways consolidation and just a pause before the next major upward breakout.
He also notes that the altcoin market is at the start of a new bull phase. After the longest bear market in history, indicators suggest that a turnaround is imminent, similar to post-FTX and COVID-19 crashes.
To top it all, analysts note that November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months according to seasonality data. So this makes it a window worth watching for both traders and investors.
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