Tony Kim
Sep 18, 2025 18:10
Bitcoin’s price remains above $115.2k with 95% of its supply profitable. Futures and options markets exhibit record activity post-FOMC, impacting volatility and liquidity.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dynamics have been notably influenced by the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the cryptocurrency trading above $115.2k, according to a report by Glassnode. This level is significant as it places 95% of Bitcoin’s supply in profit, a notable milestone following the rally spurred by FOMC announcements.
Futures Market Dynamics
Glassnode’s analysis reveals that the Bitcoin futures market has experienced a shift from a risk-off stance to a more balanced position post-FOMC. The perpetual open interest peaked at 395,000 BTC, indicating aggressive positioning by traders, before stabilizing between 378,000 and 384,000 BTC. This stabilization is attributed to the futures market’s central role in supporting the recent rally, with short squeezes and subsequent long liquidations significantly impacting market liquidity.
Options Market Insights
The options market has also seen unprecedented activity, with open interest hitting a record 500,000 BTC. The upcoming September 26 expiry is set to be the largest in Bitcoin’s history, with significant open interest around $95,000 puts and $140,000 calls, marking a broad strike distribution. The max pain point is identified near $110,000, suggesting this level could act as a gravitational pull on prices as the expiry approaches.
This heightened activity in the options market underscores a sophisticated approach by traders employing complex strategies for hedging and speculation. The notable rise in open interest ahead of the expiry indicates increased volatility potential, with gamma effects likely to amplify spot price movements.
On-Chain Metrics and Market Sentiment
On the on-chain front, Bitcoin continues to trade above the cost basis of 95% of its supply, a critical level for maintaining momentum. Should Bitcoin fail to hold above $115.2k, the market risks a contraction towards the $105.5k range, where renewed selling pressure could emerge.
The market’s current state reflects a delicate balance, with spot market sell pressure being counteracted by liquidity in perpetuals. This interplay, combined with options market dynamics, suggests a market poised for potential volatility, where stability above key cost-basis levels could extend the upside, while fragility in flows maintains downside risks.
For more insights, visit the original report on Glassnode.
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