- Analysts have increased the odds of crypto ETF approval this year following the request of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for issuers to update their S-1 forms.
- Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP ETFs filed by various issuers are reported to have approval odds of 95%.
Bloomberg’s ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have disclosed in a recent post that the odds for an altcoin ETF approval in 2025 have significantly increased to 90%. According to them, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extensively engaged with issuers, increasing the possibility of approval in the last quarter of the year.
In an accompanying table, the analysts highlighted that the spot Litecoin ETFs filed by Grayscale, Canary, and CoinShares have 95% approval odds. Most importantly, the final deadline for the SEC’s decision is October 2, 2025.
Additionally, the Solana (SOL) ETFs filed by Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity have an approval odds of 95% with a deadline currently set for October 10, 2025.
Multiple issuers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, and WisdomTree, have equally filed a spot XRP ETF with the SEC. According to Seyffart and Balchunas, they have 95% approval odds with the deadline fixed on October 17, 2025. On the same date, spot DOGE ETFs filed by Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise have approval odds of 90%.
In November and December 2025, ETFs filed for Polkadot, Hedera, Avalanche, and Sui could also be decided on. While these products have an approval odds of 90%, Sui trails with just 60% odds. According to analysts, this is due to its regulatory uncertainty and lack of a futures market.
Meanwhile, prediction platform Polymarket has revised its odds for these products, positioning the approval chance of XRP at 98%, Solana at 91%, and Dogecoin at 71%. As highlighted in our previous article, Polymarket’s odds for the Solana ETF were fixed at 85% in January.
More About the Altcoins ETF Approval Chance
Looking into some of the reasons that may have influenced this confidence level, we discovered that the SEC recently requested updates to S-1 forms after acknowledging multiple 19b-4 filings. As we reported in April, about 72 crypto ETFs are currently awaiting greenlights.
According to Seyffart, this development changes the whole scenario, making it a “matter of when, not if.” However, the time cannot be easily predicted until the final deadline. The reason is that the Commission could announce approvals this month, next month, or even the next two months.
Already, the SEC recently delayed the decisions for XRP and Solana ETF, as detailed in our last news piece. In March, Dogecoin, XRP, Litecoin, and Cardano ETFs were postponed as outlined in our previous blog post. In the midst of this, the US authorities have approved the Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index, which includes assets like SOL, ADA, XLM, and XRP.
While this marks a change of interest towards altcoins, the president of ETF Store, Nate Geraci, has hinted that approval for altcoin ETFs and “staking for spot ETH ETFs and in-kind creations/redemptions” is very likely this year. As noted in our earlier post, Nate believes that the Grayscale Digital Large Cap (GDLC) Fund could soon be approved.
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